PEMODELAN REGRESI RIDGE PADA KASUS CURAH HUJAN DI KOTA SEMARANG

Abstract

Rainfall is the amount of water that falls on the surface of the flat ground for a
certain period measured in units of height (mm) above the horizontal surface. The
classification of rainfall is divided into thick, medium, and light. Based on data of
2016 Semarang city rainfall for 6 years experienced a significant decrease and
increase. With the data of rainfall Semarang city is very high potential for flooding.
Semarang rainfall data tend to be unstable then it will cause problems in rainfall
data. Therefore it is necessary to solve the problem in rainfall data. The purpose of
this study is to model and know the factors that affect rainfall in the city of
Semarang. The results of multiple regression found problems in Multicollinearity. An appropriate method for overcoming multiko in multiple regression is the ridge
regression. Regression of ridge to stabilize regression coefficient value of deviation
of assumption in Multicolinearity. The result of the research to select the best model using the smallest MSE value which in the regex ridge model has MSE value 1.517smaller than the value of MSE in multiple regression of 1,519. While for variables that have significant effect on rainfall is wind speed, while variable temperature, humidity, solar irradiance have a significant influence but have weak effect on rainfall in Semarang city.

Keywords: Rainfall, Ridge Regression and Multiple Regression