PROYEKSI PDRB ATAS DASAR HARGA BERLAKU MENGGUNAKAN METODE TREND LINIER, PARABOLIK DAN EKSPONENSIAL

Abstract

GRDP is one of the factor that affect the economic level of a region. This data is
often used for various government or private agencies in making a policy. But,
GRDP data provider, such as BAPPEDA and BPS publish GRDP data in long of
time. Because of that, author interest to make a projection of Kudus Distric
GRDP for year 2017. The purpose of this study is to know the projection or
forecasting of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of Kudus District in
2017 with various methods and trends to find out which trend model most
suitable for use. The data that used in this article is Kudus Distric's PDRB on the
basis of current price data from 2010 until 2016.Then, GRDP calculated and
analyzed with SPSS 21 program. The conclusion is the GRDP of Kudus Regency
can be projected with linear trend model (Ŷ = 44977759,28 + 6513395,2014 X),
parabolic trend model (Ŷ = 46027952,73 + 5813266,236 X + 87516,121 X) and exponential trend model (Ŷ = 48109762,716 e0,093092X). The best model is the
parabolic trend model with the projection for 2017 is 98,135,114.4 (in million
rupiah).
 
Keywords: GRDP, projection, forecasting, trend.