PEMODELAN PRODUK DOMESTIK REGIONAL BRUTO PROVINSI JAWA TENGAH DENGAN PENDEKATAN SPATIAL AUTOREGRESSIVE CONFUSED (SAC)

Abstract

Economic growth becomes one indicator of the state's economic condition.
Increased economy is done by increasing development in various economic
sectors and equitable economic development to the regions. Therefore, with the
equalization of economic development will provide an increase in the value of
gross domestic product of a region. In this research, the description of gross
regional domestic product and influencing factors from the territorial point of
view with costumaize weighting matrix, and spatial autoregressive confused
PDRB modeling using spatial effect on response and residual variables. The
results showed that the spread of GRDP in Central Java Province has a pattern
that clustered between adjacent areas. Based on the GRDP relationship with
the variables that affect the workforce (TK), human capital (HC), road
infrastructure (INF), it can be interpreted that the similarities and differences in
characteristics of each district that close together cause increase or decrease
GDP Central Java Province. This study was conducted with the aim of
determining the weighting matrix and modeling the Central Java GRDP with
the appropriate weighting matrix. Based on SAC model analysis results are
significantly better than OLS model with AIC value. The significant variables
directly affect human capital. While the indirect effect occurs on residuals.

Keywords: GRDP, Spatial autoregressive confused (SAC), Spatial Econometrik