PERAMALAN HARGA MINYAK MENTAH STANDARWEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATEDENGAN PENDEKATAN METODEARIMA

Abstract

Crude Oil is an important commodity. Because crude oil is a much needed
source of energy all over the world. So that changes of oil prices will greatly
affect the state of a country's economy. The price of crude oil in certain
conditions has a significant increase and decrease. Rising crude oil prices will
have an impact on both exporting and importing countries in terms of inflation,
stock prices and interest rates. Thus, statistical techniques that can be used to
forecast time series data types are ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving
Average). Based on the above description of the objectives to be achieved is to
forecast the price of crude oil on June 23 - July 3, 2016. From the forecasting
results with Box-Jenkins method, the best ARIMA model obtained is ARIMA
(1,1,1) with forecasting model:  
 
Keywords: ARIMA, Oil Price, Forecast