Peramalan Hasil Panen Mangga dengan Pendekatan Seasonal Autoregresif Integrated Moving Average Method

Abstract

Mango is one of the agricultural products in Indramayu large enough.This
arises from a number of farmers who cultivate this fruit, and the public interest
is high enough to consume this fruit. The data studied from 2003 until 2015.
Given the plot of data generated, the data has a seasonal pattern of each
period. This research is done by using SARIMA method (Seasonal
Autoregressive Moving Average). From the results of forecasting methods
SARIMA models Box-Jenkins ARIMA produce (1,1,1) (1,1,0) =42) with the equation.

From this research obtained by forecasting yields all kinds of mangoes in 20162017 in Indramayu district with the highest prediction results obtained in
October-December 2017 and the lowest padabulan January-March 2016
 
Keywords: Forecasting, Harvest Mango, SARIMA