FORECASTING THE OCCUPANCY RATE OF STAR HOTELS IN BALI USING THE XGBOOST AND SVR METHODS

Abstract

The hotel occupancy rate indicator has become a concern in recent years as it goes hand in hand with the rapid growth of the global tourism industry. A way to maintain or even improve this indicator is to carry out managerial planning using forecasting methods. The forecasting methods used in this research are XGBoost and SVR. The advantage of this modelling is that it achieves high accuracy and processing speed. Meanwhile, the benefit of SVR is that it will produce good prediction because can overcome overfitting. The steps in this research are exploring data, separating training data and testing data, transforming data, modelling data, forecasting data, and evaluating forecasting results using RMSE, MAE, and MAPE. The results show that MAPE value from both methods is smaller than 10%, which means that both methods can predict the occupancy rate of star hotels in Bali very accurately. Apart from that, the SVR method has smaller values for all model evaluation criteria than the XGBoost method, which means that the SVR method is better than XGBoost for predicting the occupancy rate of star hotels in Bali.