Applied Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter Method for Predict Rainfall in Mataram City

Dewi Darma Pertiwi

Abstract


Weather conditions in the city of Mataram tend to be erratic and difficult to predict, such as the condition of rainfall data in 2018 which changes over a certain period of time so that the weather is difficult to predict accurately. In this study, we propose the Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter method to forecast rainfall in the city of Mataram, so that it can be a decision support for various interested sectors. This method has been tested using secondary data from the Mataram City Central Bureau of Statistics for the period January 2014 to 2018 and evaluated using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results of this study indicate that using the Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter method yields better results, each of which is MAPE 142.3, MAD 95.6 and MSD value 24988.7 and the data smoothing value is obtained for the smallest combination value of α 0.2, β 0.1, and γ 0.1. It can be concluded that the proposed method can provide better information and can be used to predict rainfall in Mataram City for the next 12 periods.


Keywords


Exponential Smoothing; Holt-Winter; Mataram; Rainfall

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.26714/jichi.v1i2.6330

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Journal of Intelligent Computing and Health Informatics (JICHI)
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